Attack tree (BGP and MP-BGP)

1. Compromise BGP/MP-BGP Routing [OR]

    1.1 Initial Access & Infrastructure Compromise [OR]
    
        1.1.1 Social Engineering & Phishing [OR]
        
            1.1.1.1 Target network engineers with BGP config malware
            1.1.1.2 Impersonate RIR staff for ROA manipulation
            1.1.1.3 Fake vendor support requests for credential theft
            
        1.1.2 Exploiting Management Interfaces [OR]
        
            1.1.2.1 Exposed BGP monitoring systems (Grafana/Kibana)
            1.1.2.2 Compromised SSH keys for router access
            1.1.2.3 Default credentials on router admin interfaces
            
        1.1.3 Supply Chain Attacks [OR]
        
            1.1.3.1 Backdoored router firmware/images
            1.1.3.2 Compromised IXP route server software
            1.1.3.3 Malicious BGP optimization tools
            
    1.2 BGP Protocol Attacks [OR]
    
        1.2.1 Session Manipulation [OR]
        
            1.2.1.1 TCP RST injection [AND]
                |-> No TCP-AO/MD5 authentication
                |-> On-path position
            1.2.1.2 Keepalive timer exhaustion attacks
            1.2.1.3 BGP session spoofing with forged source IPs
            
        1.2.2 Update Flooding [OR]
        
            1.2.2.1 Route flap storms (announce/withdraw)
            1.2.2.2 Massive de-aggregation attacks
            1.2.2.3 AS-path prepending storms
            
    1.3 Persistence & Evasion [OR]
    
        1.3.1 Route Poisoning [OR]
        
            1.3.1.1 Selective route announcements during low traffic
            1.3.1.2 Time-based hijacking (short-lived attacks)
            1.3.1.3 Geographic-specific route manipulation
            
        1.3.2 Detection Evasion [OR]
        
            1.3.2.1 Mimicking legitimate AS-path patterns
            1.3.2.2 Abuse of RPKI 'unknown' state
            1.3.2.3 Leveraging peer conflicts for ambiguity
            
2. Protocol-Specific Attacks [OR]

    2.1 Classic BGP (IPv4) Attacks [OR]
    
        2.1.1 IPv4 Prefix Hijacking [OR]
        
            2.1.1.1 Sub-prefix hijacking (more specific routes)
            2.1.1.2 Exact-prefix hijacking with forged origin
            2.1.1.3 Squatting unallocated IPv4 space
            
        2.1.2 IPv4 Path Manipulation [OR]
        
            2.1.2.1 AS-path prepending for traffic engineering
            2.1.2.2 Ghost AS insertion for origin hiding
            2.1.2.3 Community attribute abuse
            
        2.1.3 IPv4 Infrastructure Attacks [OR]
        
            2.1.3.1 Route reflector compromise
            2.1.3.2 BGP router memory exhaustion
            2.1.3.3 Max-prefix limit exploitation
            
    2.2 MP-BGP Specific Attacks [OR]
    
        2.2.1 Multiprotocol NLRl Attacks [OR]
        
            2.2.1.1 VPNv4 route injection [AND]
                |-> Route Distinguisher guessing/bruteforcing
                |-> VPN label spoofing
            2.2.1.2 EVPN MAC/IP advertisement spoofing
            2.2.1.3 IPv6 next-hop poisoning
            
        2.2.2 Address Family Exploitation [OR]
        
            2.2.2.1 Rare AFI/SAFI flooding (e.g., multicast)
            2.2.2.2 Cross-AFI contamination attacks
            2.2.2.3 MP_REACH_NLRI attribute manipulation
            
        2.2.3 MP-BGP Session Attacks [OR]
        
            2.2.3.1 Capability negotiation exploitation
            2.2.3.2 Multi-session AFI exhaustion
            2.2.3.3 Extended community forgery
            
    2.3 BGP-Agnostic Attacks [OR]
    
        2.3.1 RPKI Infrastructure Attacks [OR]
        
            2.3.1.1 RTR (RPKI-to-Router) protocol exploitation
            2.3.1.2 ROA expiration/time manipulation
            2.3.1.3 RIR portal compromise for ROA creation
            
        2.3.2 DDoS Amplification [OR]
        
            2.3.2.1 BGP update reflection/amplification
            2.3.2.2 Route server DDoS via query flooding
            2.3.2.3 Looking glass abuse for amplification
            
        2.3.3 Cryptographic Attacks [OR]
        
            2.3.3.1 BGPsec key compromise
            2.3.3.2 TCP-AO hash collision attacks
            2.3.3.3 RPKI certificate chain exploitation
            
3. Cross-Protocol & Composite Attacks [OR]

    3.1 BGP + DNS Attacks [OR]
    
        3.1.1 Recursive resolver hijacking [AND]
            |-> BGP prefix hijack
            |-> DNS poisoning/compromise
        3.1.2 Authoritative NS redirect [AND]
            |-> Nameserver prefix hijack
            |-> DNSSEC compromise
            
    3.2 BGP + CDN/Cloud Attacks [OR]
    
        3.2.1 Anycast prefix hijacking [AND]
            |-> CDN edge node hijack
            |-> SSL certificate forgery
        3.2.2 Cloud region isolation [AND]
            |-> Regional prefix hijack
            |-> Tenant isolation bypass
            
    3.3 AI-Powered Attacks [OR]
    
        3.3.1 ML-Generated Path Forgery
        3.3.2 Autonomous hijack coordination
        3.3.3 Adaptive persistence mechanisms

Risk table

Attack Path

Technical Complexity

Resources Required

Risk Level

Notes

1.1.1.1 Target network engineers with BGP config malware

High

Medium

High

Needs social engineering and malware development.

1.1.1.2 Impersonate RIR staff for ROA manipulation

High

Medium

High

Phishing or spoofing regulatory staff; targeted.

1.1.1.3 Fake vendor support requests for credential theft

Medium

Low

Medium

Social engineering; depends on human error.

1.1.2.1 Exposed BGP monitoring systems (Grafana/Kibana)

Medium

Low

Medium

Requires scanning and access; opportunistic.

1.1.2.2 Compromised SSH keys for router access

High

Medium

High

Accessing routers; advanced network knowledge needed.

1.1.2.3 Default credentials on router admin interfaces

Low

Low

Medium

Simple but high impact if not patched.

1.1.3.1 Backdoored router firmware/images

Very High

High

Very High

Supply chain compromise; difficult but extremely impactful.

1.1.3.2 Compromised IXP route server software

Very High

High

Very High

Infrastructure-level attack; sophisticated.

1.1.3.3 Malicious BGP optimization tools

High

Medium

High

Requires targeted deployment to operators.

1.2.1.1 TCP RST injection

High

High

High

Requires on-path access and no authentication.

1.2.1.2 Keepalive timer exhaustion attacks

Medium

Medium

Medium

Automated attack; moderately difficult.

1.2.1.3 BGP session spoofing with forged source IPs

High

Medium

High

Needs control over traffic path; complex.

1.2.2.1 Route flap storms

High

Medium

High

Large-scale announcement/withdraw attacks.

1.2.2.2 Massive de-aggregation attacks

High

Medium

High

Disrupts routing tables; technical skill required.

1.2.2.3 AS-path prepending storms

Medium

Medium

Medium

Moderately disruptive; requires coordination.

1.3.1.1 Selective route announcements during low traffic

Medium

Low

Medium

Timing-sensitive manipulation; moderate skill.

1.3.1.2 Time-based hijacking (short-lived attacks)

High

Medium

High

Requires precise timing; stealthy.

1.3.1.3 Geographic-specific route manipulation

High

Medium

High

Knowledge of regional routing; targeted impact.

1.3.2.1 Mimicking legitimate AS-path patterns

High

Medium

High

Evades detection; requires routing expertise.

1.3.2.2 Abuse of RPKI ‘unknown’ state

Medium

Medium

Medium

Exploits protocol ambiguity; moderate skill.

1.3.2.3 Leveraging peer conflicts for ambiguity

Medium

Medium

Medium

Relies on network relationships; moderate effort.

2.1.1.1 Sub-prefix hijacking

High

Medium

High

Diverts traffic for targeted prefixes; technical skill required.

2.1.1.2 Exact-prefix hijacking with forged origin

High

Medium

High

Highly disruptive; requires forged announcements.

2.1.1.3 Squatting unallocated IPv4 space

Medium

Medium

Medium

Opportunistic; requires routing control.

2.1.2.1 AS-path prepending for traffic engineering

Medium

Low

Medium

Low-cost traffic manipulation; detectable.

2.1.2.2 Ghost AS insertion for origin hiding

High

Medium

High

Advanced; hides origin in AS-path.

2.1.2.3 Community attribute abuse

Medium

Low

Medium

Manipulates routing preferences; moderate impact.

2.1.3.1 Route reflector compromise

Very High

High

Very High

Infrastructure-level; highly technical.

2.1.3.2 BGP router memory exhaustion

High

Medium

High

Denial-of-service via resource exhaustion.

2.1.3.3 Max-prefix limit exploitation

Medium

Medium

Medium

Moderate disruption; needs misconfiguration.

2.2.1.1 VPNv4 route injection

Very High

High

Very High

Requires RD guessing and label spoofing; advanced.

2.2.1.2 EVPN MAC/IP advertisement spoofing

High

Medium

High

Targeted virtual network attack; technical.

2.2.1.3 IPv6 next-hop poisoning

High

Medium

High

Advanced manipulation; moderate resources.

2.2.2.1 Rare AFI/SAFI flooding

High

Medium

High

Exploits uncommon address families; sophisticated.

2.2.2.2 Cross-AFI contamination attacks

High

Medium

High

Complex manipulation; needs network knowledge.

2.2.2.3 MP_REACH_NLRI attribute manipulation

High

Medium

High

Technical; affects multi-protocol routing.

2.2.3.1 Capability negotiation exploitation

High

Medium

High

Requires session-level manipulation.

2.2.3.2 Multi-session AFI exhaustion

High

Medium

High

Resource-intensive; complex.

2.2.3.3 Extended community forgery

High

Medium

High

Advanced routing attack; targeted.

2.3.1.1 RTR protocol exploitation

High

Medium

High

Exploits RPKI infrastructure; technical.

2.3.1.2 ROA expiration/time manipulation

Medium

Medium

Medium

Relies on timing; moderate impact.

2.3.1.3 RIR portal compromise for ROA creation

High

High

High

Needs access to RIR systems; very impactful.

2.3.2.1 BGP update reflection/amplification

High

Medium

High

Can be used for DDoS amplification; sophisticated.

2.3.2.2 Route server DDoS via query flooding

Medium

Medium

Medium

Moderate-scale amplification; network access needed.

2.3.2.3 Looking glass abuse for amplification

Medium

Low

Medium

Opportunistic; low-resource attack.

2.3.3.1 BGPsec key compromise

Very High

High

Very High

High-impact cryptographic attack; highly technical.

2.3.3.2 TCP-AO hash collision attacks

Very High

High

Very High

Advanced crypto attack; rare but severe.

2.3.3.3 RPKI certificate chain exploitation

Very High

High

Very High

Cryptographic exploitation; complex and high-risk.

3.1.1 Recursive resolver hijacking

Very High

High

Very High

Requires BGP hijack + DNS compromise; complex.

3.1.2 Authoritative NS redirect

Very High

High

Very High

Combination of routing and DNSSEC compromise; highly technical.

3.2.1 Anycast prefix hijacking

Very High

High

Very High

CDN edge and certificate forgery; very resource intensive.

3.2.2 Cloud region isolation

Very High

High

Very High

Regional routing + tenant isolation; extremely difficult.

3.3.1 ML-generated path forgery

Very High

High

Very High

AI-assisted routing attacks; cutting-edge.

3.3.2 Autonomous hijack coordination

Very High

High

Very High

Coordinated AI attacks; highly sophisticated.

3.3.3 Adaptive persistence mechanisms

Very High

High

Very High

Self-adjusting attacks; very hard to detect and mitigate.